kidnap the best possibility
Understanding Abduction
In a prison somewhere in the United States, a kidnapper and a murderer share a jail cell. This cell is monitored by personnel and recording cameras 24 hours a day and the cell doors never open from 9pm-5am. At 10 pm, the cameras capture the kidnapper and the murderer fighting, the kidnapper looks to have initiated the conflict by punching the murderer while he was on the can. Before the guards can get to the jail cell, the kidnapper furiously smashes the murderer’s head into the jail cell door cracking open his skull, thereby killing him instantly. As the guards enter the jail cell they obtain the kidnapper’s journal, stating his contempt and desire to murder his cell mate.
At first glance, it looks as if the kidnapper murdered the murderer. This is what abduction is; it is taking the information gathered about a situation and discovering the best explanation for it amongst an array of other explanations.
Going back to our opening vignette, there are actually other possibilities to what could have occurred in the jail cell. The murderer could have spoke with the kidnapper earlier and told him to beat him up and kill him while he was on the can, for if he didn’t, the murderer would have ended up killing the kidnapper in his sleep. Or, the entire event was skillfully orchestrated by the kidnapper’s victim’s rich family, who bribed the murderer and prison staff to make the kidnapper into a killer, thus giving him a bigger sentence. Or, a government entity tested a new mind control device, took over the kidnappers mind and forced him to murder the murderer. By the way, the definition of murder in this case is of being of purposeful intent to kill and not of self defense.
Whatever scenario you choose above or even make up on your own, it’s still most likely that the kidnapper killed his cell mate. Beyond this scenario, it is argued that almost every argument’s evidence can be subject to this alternate dimension type spin on the facts. What this all boils down to, for the immediate advocate is that abduction is designed to help you choose the best explanation for the phenomenon. To decide this, there are four major factors:
- Simplicity – try to choose the least complicated explanation with the fewest things to prove.
- Coherence – go with the idea that is readily apparent and what can be supported directly.
- Testability or predictive power - choose the one that can be proven or disproved of as conclusively as possible.
- Comprehensiveness in scope - find the one with the least loose ends and that covers the most factors leaving little to mystery.